# Chateau de la Tobler

## Thursday, January 03, 2008

### 2008 Round the First

Iowa caucuses:
Huckabee 34%, Romney 25%, McCain 14%, Thompson 13%
Obama 38%, Edwards 30%, Clinton 29%
My take (from reading a lot of pundits):

- Great for Huckabee, he's still not going to be the nominee, though. Not gonna happen.
- Baaaad for Romney. He really needs to do well in New Hampshire next Tuesday, but McCain is surging there and has the momentum of an "unexpected" third place finish in Iowa. Romney has the anti-momentum of a truly unwanted second place finish in Iowa.
- Great for McCain. See above, plus he beat out Thompson (or tied him, depending on which numbers you look at).
- So-so for Thompson. Would have been better to have a strong third place finish.
- Fabulous for Obama. Has momentum, takes the "inevitability" away from Clinton. Couldn't be better, really.
- Nice for Edwards, but I really doubt he's going anywhere. He just doesn't have the "star" power this time around, plus I read that his money is pretty low. Not a good place to be.
- Neutral for Clinton. She wasn't going to win Iowa, and a third place finish is pretty harsh. But she has connections, money, name recognition...The New Hampshire primary is a pretty big deal. If she doesn't win that, then things start going downhill fast.

My feelings?
I'm bummed about Romney and Thompson, because those two were my first picks. I don't want to believe that people voted for Huckabee because of anti-Mormonism, but it seems to me that it played SOME small role, and that bugs me!
I can't support Huckabee--he is pro-life, and he seems like a really decent fellow (I hate to kill him...name that movie!), but his politics! He's big into nanny-state-ism (the government will take care of everything for you...), he's had far too many foreign policy faux pas, he raised taxes a lot as governor of Arkansas, his Mormon comments GRATE on me.
I could support McCain--he's got a lot against him in my book, at least with domestic policies, but, man, he has some serious integrity, and I love that about him--but not in the primaries. If he gets the nomination, I could get behind him.
Next big contest is the New Hampshire primaries on Tuesday, January 8th. (Wyoming's caucuses are on Saturday, but, sorry, Wyoming, nobody cares.)
(What do you all think? Would you rather I shut up about the presidential elections? Because I will if you don't care.)

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