# Chateau de la Tobler

## Tuesday, January 08, 2008

### New Hampshire (or, as the locals say, "Na-HAM-sure")

(I don't know if the locals really call it that.)
So! That was a surprising primary. Pity I couldn't enjoy the results coming in better--I had a Primary meeting tonight that went for 3 hours. But anyway:
Republicans: McCain 37%, Romney 32%, Huckabee 11%, Giuliani 9%, Paul 8%...
Democrats: Clinton 39%, Obama 37%, Edwards 17%, Richardson 5%...
"Common" knowledge said Obama was going to win--so did the polls. Most if not all polls had Obama up by at least 6-8%, some had him up by 11%. So the fact that Clinton took the win is pretty crazy, and is causing a lot of people to look at those polls again. Other than that, not much has changed. Edwards is in trouble, but we knew that. It's probably still anyone's game between Clinton and Obama.
Bummed yet again about Romney's 2nd place finish--it's not a reputation he wants, I imagine. However, something interesting that I didn't realize until Bradley pointed it out: Romney (because he won Wyoming) actually has the most actual delegates (the ones who actually go to the convention and vote for the nominee) of all the Republicans--CNN has a nice little chart. So, he has money, he has delegates, and, well, he just might not be out for the count. (Maybe that's just wishful thinking.)(But maybe not!)
McCain--well, that was a really nice win for him. And it certainly gives him more momentum going ahead. He might just take this all the way to the end.
Huckabee--meh. Distant third place, I think he loses most of his momentum.
So what's next? Michigan's primary is next Tuesday, January 15. McCain and Romney are going to be going at it pretty hard for that one. I think Clinton is the only one on the ticket on the Dem side (because of stupid inter-party politics). Then on January 19, we have Nevada's caucus (Are you going, Mema? David, Amy?), and South Carolina's Republican primary.

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